Daily Kos: NC-Sen: Race tightening

From Dailykos…

I always thought this race was winnable if only Elaine could get on the air.  Richard Burr is such a non-entity corporate tool….

The most winnable race of the cycle the DSCC has ignored is the Senate race in North Carolina, where the party committee took one look at Democrat Eliane Marshall’s cash on hand numbers and decided to go play elsewhere. And yes, after the second quarter, it was bleak. After her protracted primary, Marshall had less than $200,000 in the bank compared to incumbent Republican Richard Burr’s $6 million.

Yet we’ve seen the last several cycles that the money race isn’t really about who has more, but whether the challenger has enough to get his or her message out and a political environment that is receptive to that message.

In North Carolina, Burr has never established any semblance of real popularity, and as such, was always a prime target. Yet Marshall’s money situation spurred Democrats to ignore Burr’s weaknesses — a decision that they may regret in two weeks:

The good news for Marshall is that she’s picking up undecided voters and closing the gap against Burr. She now trails by 8 points, 48-40, after facing a 13 point deficit against Burr three weeks ago. She’s starting to shore up her support with the base, getting 73% of Democrats compared to 65% in the previous poll.

And that base is getting larger as the level of interest from Democratic voters picks up with the election moving closer. In late September the likely voter pool for this year voted for John McCain by a 9 point margin, suggesting a massive drop in Democratic turnout given that Barack Obama actually won the state. Now the likely voter pool reflects an electorate that supported McCain by 4 points, still pointing to a decline in Democratic turnout but perhaps not as massive as it looked like it would be earlier in the cycle.

What changed? Like PPP notes, Democrats are coming home. And Marshall is finally on the air, after enduring seven weeks of unanswered Burr attack ads. Despite the disparity in the air war, Burr is still below 50 percent, and Marshall seems to be sucking up all the undecided votes.

Furthermore, 6.2 percent of the vote is already in thanks to North Carolina’s early voting. Among the 126,899 ballots received, Democrats have cast 43.5 percent of them compared to 38.8 percent for Republicans.

This one ain’t over.

via Daily Kos: NC-Sen: Race tightening.

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Chapter 31: Life with Granny | My Southern Gothic Life

New post up on the other Blog:

I know I have single-handedly destroyed the stereotype that all Gay Men adore their Mothers.  But I did adore my Grandmother and my Aunt Goldie.  I am far from a misogynist.

I’ll write about Goldie later, but let me talk about Granny first.

My Grandmother- Granny- was my Mother’s Mother.  Bertha Quintral Sigmon.  Two women could not have been more different.  For all the flighty, Southern Belle manipulations that personified my Mother, Granny offset them by being a totally down to earth realist.

She had to be…

Click her to go to the entire post:   Chapter 31: Life with Granny | My Southern Gothic Life.

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The Rage Won’t End on Election Day – NYTimes.com

Another great column by Frank Rich in the NY Times:

That wave of anger began with the parallel 2008 cataclysms of the economy’s collapse and Barack Obama’s ascension. The mood has not subsided since. But in the final stretch of 2010, the radical right’s anger is becoming less focused, more free-floating — more likely to be aimed at “government” in general, whatever the location or officials in charge. The anger is also more likely to claim minorities like gays, Latinos and Muslims as collateral damage. This is a significant and understandable shift, if hardly a salutary one. The mad-as-hell crowd in America, still not seeing any solid economic recovery on the horizon, will lash out at any convenient scapegoat.

The rage was easier to parse at the Tea Party’s birth, when, a month after Obama’s inauguration, its founding father, CNBC’s Rick Santelli, directed his rant at the ordinary American “losers” (as he called them) defaulting on their mortgages, and at those in Washington who proposed bailing the losers out. (Funny how the Bush-initiated bank bailouts went unmentioned.) Soon enough, the anger tilted toward Washington in general and the new president in particular. And it kept getting hotter. In June 2009, still just six months into the Obama presidency, the Fox News anchor Shepard Smith broke with his own network’s party line to lament a rise in “amped up” Americans “taking the extra step and getting the gun out.” He viewed the killing of a guard by a neo-Nazi Obama hater at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington as the apotheosis of the “more and more frightening” post-election e-mail surging into Fox.

The moment passed. Glenn Beck, also on Fox, spoke for most on the right when he dismissed the shooter as a “lone gunman nutjob.” Those who showed up with assault rifles at presidential health care rallies that summer were similarly minimized as either solitary oddballs or overzealous Second Amendment patriots. Few cared when The Boston Globe reported last fall that the Secret Service was overwhelmed by death threats against the president as well as a rise in racist hate groups and antigovernment fervor. It’s no better now. In a cover article last month, Barton Gellman wrote in Time that the magazine’s six-month investigation found that “the threat level against the president and other government targets” is at its highest since the antigovernment frenzy that preceded Timothy McVeigh’s bombing of a federal building in Oklahoma City in 1995.

AND

 

Don’t expect the extremism and violence in our politics to subside magically after Election Day — no matter what the results. If Tea Party candidates triumph, they’ll be emboldened. If they lose, the anger and bitterness will grow. The only development that can change this equation is a decisive rescue from our prolonged economic crisis. Not for the first time in history — and not just American history — fear itself is at the root of a rabid outbreak of populist rage against government, minorities and conspiratorial “elites.”

So far neither party has offered a comprehensive antidote to our economic pain. The Democrats have fallen short, and the cynics leading the G.O.P. haven’t so much as tried. We shouldn’t be surprised that this year even a state as seemingly well-mannered as Connecticut has produced a senatorial candidate best known for marching into a wrestling ring to gratuitously kick a man in the groin.

 

 

MORE:   Op-Ed Columnist – The Rage Won’t End on Election Day – NYTimes.com.

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Glenn Beck: Drawing On 1950s Extremism? : NPR

Great article on NPR.  I encourage you to click the link and read the entire interview

In the Oct. 18 issue of The New Yorker, historian Sean Wilentz examines “how extremist ideas held at bay for decades inside the Republican Party have exploded anew — and why, this time, party leaders have done virtually nothing to challenge those ideas, and a great deal to abet them.”

Wilentz, who teaches at Princeton University, argues that the rhetoric expressed by both conservative broadcaster Glenn Beck and the Tea Party is nothing new — and is rooted in an extremist ideology that has been around since the Cold War, a view that the Republican Party is now embracing.

“I think what’s happening is the Republican Party is willing to chase after whatever it can to get the party back — to get power back,” he tells Fresh Air’s Terry Gross. “This is what’s happening in the Republican Party, so instead of drawing lines, they’re jumping over fences to look like they’re in the good graces of these Tea Party types.”

Wilentz says Beck, who has emerged as a unifying figure and intellectual guide for the Tea Party movement, finds fodder for his Fox News Channel and syndicated radio shows in the ideas espoused by the John Birch Society, an ultraconservative political group founded in 1958 that, Wilentz writes, “became synonymous with right-wing extremism.”

via Glenn Beck: Drawing On 1950s Extremism? : NPR.

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“The Boys in the Band”

I have a love/hate relationship with “The Boys in the Band.”

I love it because it was one of the first Gay plays to be a hit in New York.  It brought homosexuality out of the closet and onto the stage.  It was a true cultural touchstone, coming out just a year or so after the Stonewall riots.

And it scared the hell out of me when I was a young, Gay man in the 1980’s.

It was hard to see past these stereotypes in Danville VA and figure out how they related to me and my life.  But, it was one of the few visual examples of Gay life, of any kind,  available to us.

Thank God, for “Will and Grace”….I can’t believe I’m saying that, but it was so much more positive than this…

I hate “The Boys in the Band” for all the self hatred it shows and all the negative sterotypes.  It was of it’s time…

But it does truly show the way some of us were….

It’s honest.  Scary, but honest.

And it’s a fair reminder of how the times were and how Gay men saw themselves then…It’s a snap shot in History.

And it should make us grateful for how far we’ve come since then…

And make us appreciate how much harder it was for those who came before us…

It’s gotten so much better…

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It Get’s Better…

I’m not sure everyone realizes how deeply the recent epidemic of suicides by young, gay people have touched so many of us older gay people.

Honestly, we understand what they felt.  Most of us have been there and we got past it.

We just want them to know, it does get so much better.

The guy in this video puts it all so well.  I thank him for that and hope others will listen…It’s worth watching the entire thing.

Many of us have been there with him and come out on the other side.  It really is a fairly universal story…

These gay kids need to realize how great life as a gay person can be once you work through all the crap…

And, believe me, you can work through it…No, it’s not easy, but just hang in there and look for support.

It’s there.  We’re here.  We made it…and we are willing to help you make it,too.

Remember, the bullies will probably end up driving beer trucks in small towns while you have a wonderful life.  It may take a few years, but hang in there.

Also, remember, people who are popular in High School have probably peaked too soon.  Your time is yet to come…

It does get so much better…

And life is so good….

Grab it and hold on to it like the something precious it is….

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Bishop Gene Robinson: How Religion Is Killing Our Most Vulnerable Youth

I really hope people think about this…

An increasingly popular bumper sticker reads, “Guns Don’t Kill People — RELIGION Kills People!” In light of recent events I would add religion kills young people: gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender young people.

Perhaps not directly, though. And religion is certainly not the only source of anti-gay sentiment in the culture. But it’s hard to deny that religious voices denouncing LGBT people contribute to the atmosphere in which violence against LGBT people and bullying of LGBT youth can flourish.

The news is filled with the tragedies of teenaged boys who were gay and decided to end their living hell by committing suicide. Maybe they weren’t even gay, but merely perceived to be by their peers, who harassed, taunted, and threatened them unmercifully.

via Bishop Gene Robinson: How Religion Is Killing Our Most Vulnerable Youth.

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Black voters may be just as engaged as they were in 2008, polls show

This is good news!  Now if only the young voters turn out,too….

Hat tip to Americablog where I first saw this…

Will black voters turn out in November?

Historically, black turnout for midterm elections has lagged behind the national average, but two new reports offer a bullish outlook for this year.

A major survey conducted by The Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University found that 80 percent of black Democrats are as interested or more interested in the midterms than they were in the 2008 presidential election, when their enthusiasm helped propel Barack Obama into office.

This year, 62 percent of all black Democrats say they’re likely to encourage others to support certain candidates, according to the survey, compared with 47 percent of white Democrats and 57 percent of all Republicans.

And the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which researched the black electorate, said in a report Thursday that African American participation in November may be higher than in many past midterm elections.

via Black voters may be just as engaged as they were in 2008, polls show.

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What Better Way to Close Out My Birthday Than With a Little Vintage Gay, French Line Dancing?

Here goes:

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Behind the Numbers – Pew: cellphone bias may be bigger than in ’08

Interesting….

The Cell Phone issue is going to be much clearer after November…

In a new analysis sure to add to the uncertainty about the upcoming election, the Pew Research Center reports that a large number of pre-election polls might be biased.

Polls that don’t interview people on cellphones are producing potentially inaccurate results, according to the Pew study. The vast majority of political polls today only interview on conventional, landline telephones.

Looking at their most recently released poll, Pew shows that a 7-point Republican advantage on the generic congressional vote question would have been a wider 12-point lead had they not included cellphone interviews. Three of four other Pew polls this year would have shown similar tilts toward the GOP, leading to Pew’s conclusion that “the bias [from not using cellphones] is as large, and potentially even larger, than it was in 2008.”

Nationally, Pew and some others (including The Washington Post) interview on cellphones, but few state- and district-level polls do so. Almost no automated polls include cellphone samples, in part because of the legal prohibition against having computers dial cellphone numbers. Approximately 25 percent of all U.S. adults are “cell only.”

While Pew’s update to their long-running research on cellphones and surveys isn’t a broad rebuke to pollsters who don’t interview on cellphones, it raises fresh doubts about the precision of the reams of polling data fueling estimates of what may happen on Nov. 2.

via Behind the Numbers – Pew: cellphone bias may be bigger than in ’08.

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