Tag Archives: The Economy

Decline and Fall of the American Empire

A fascinating article in The Guardian from the UK  that is worth reading in it’s entirety.

Being a student of History, I have often wondered if we were at the beginning of the end of the American Empire.  Or maybe in the middle of it….

Like people, Empires have a finite life span.  Neither the Roman nor the British Empire lasted forever.  On my bad days, I wonder if we aren’t all living in a declining democracy on the way to being a third world country.

I particularly have this feeling when I travel by air or read too much about the Republican positions….

Don’t go screeching USA! USA! USA! at me…

Read the article and think if there are ways we can reverse this- or is it already  too late?

Talk amongst yourselves…

 

Let me put an alternative hypothesis. America in 2011 is Rome in 200AD or Britain on the eve of the first world war: an empire at the zenith of its power but with cracks beginning to show.

The experience of both Rome and Britain suggests that it is hard to stop the rot once it has set in, so here are the a few of the warning signs of trouble ahead: military overstretch, a widening gulf between rich and poor, a hollowed-out economy, citizens using debt to live beyond their means, and once-effective policies no longer working. The high levels of violent crime, epidemic of obesity, addiction to pornography and excessive use of energy may be telling us something: the US is in an advanced state of cultural decadence.

Empires decline for many different reasons but certain factors recur. There is an initial reluctance to admit that there is much to fret about, and there is the arrival of a challenger (or several challengers) to the settled international order. In Spain’s case, the rival was Britain. In Britain’s case, it was America. In America’s case, the threat comes from China.

Britain’s decline was extremely rapid after 1914. By 1945, the UK was a bit player in the bipolar world dominated by the US and the Soviet Union, and sterling – the heart of the 19th-century gold standard – was rapidly losing its lustre as a reserve currency. There had been concerns, voiced as far back as the 1851 Great Exhibition, that the hungrier, more efficient producers in Germany and the US threatened Britain’s industrial hegemony. But no serious policy action was taken. In the second half of the 19th century there was a subtle shift in the economy, from the north of England to the south, from manufacturing to finance, from making things to living off investment income. By 1914, the writing was on the wall.

In two important respects, the US today differs from Britain a century ago. It is much bigger, which means that it benefits from continent-wide economies of scale, and it has a presence in the industries that will be strategically important in the first half of the 21st century. Britain in 1914 was over-reliant on coal and shipbuilding, industries that struggled between the world wars, and had failed to grasp early enough the importance of emerging new technologies.

Even so, there are parallels. There has been a long-term shift of emphasis in the US economy away from manufacturing and towards finance. There is a growing challenge from producers in other parts of the world.

via Decline and fall of the American empire | Business | The Guardian.

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The GOP’s Dangerous Arrogance

Great article up at YahooNews…

Even I- no political innocent- am still shocked at how callous and blatantly Political the GOP is…

They really don’t seem to care about the Country, only about their political power and their wealthy campaign contributors.

Defaulting on the national debt is just unthinkable.  If they do not raise the debt ceiling, the entire economy will be thrown into chaos and Wall Street will go crazy.  I hope their Corporate owners force the Republicans to do the right thing, but I’m afraid they are too out of control right now even for the Wall Street moneymen to bring them into line.  This is scary stuff….

The Republicans have done everything they can to slow the recovery just so the economy will either collapse into crisis again or be so weak they can use it politically.

They have no interest in Statesmanship or in what is best for the Country.  All they care about is what is best for the GOP, the Rich and the Corporations who fund them…

I just hope the Rich and the Corporations still have enough control to stop the GOP from destroying the economy just for Political gain.  If they do play politics with the debt ceiling, even the Rich and the Corporations will feel the hurt.  But the Middle Class will feel it more.  As usual….

 

Nationally and globally, the economy is at a tipping point. The GOP, driven by invincible ignorance or cynical design – and perhaps both – is working overtime to trash the recovery with budget cuts that would drain demand from the economy – or a debt ceiling vote that could trigger a financial collapse equal to 2008, or perhaps unpredictably graver. For proof, all you had to do was listen to Mitt Romney’s announcement speech today. In it, he made a smarmy attempt to blame Barack Obama for the economic pain actually caused by the dereliction of duty by George W. Bush & Co., pain that was then prolonged by the obstruction of congressional Republicans. Those legislators contrived successfully to limit the stimulus package, block a second one, and forthwith blame the stimulus that saved us from another Great Depression for the slow climb out of the Great Recession. Never, of course, did they mention that the America’s deep deficits were generated by the fraudulent Bush war in Iraq and the unfair Bush tax cuts, which were founded on the false premise that they would pay for themselves.

The same tawdry spectacle has played out for two years and more in America’s capitol, a place that is still, despite recently fashionable worries about its destiny, the indispensible engine of the world economy. Indeed, the future of billions of human beings is determined by our elections, in which most of them have no vote. JFK once noted that the proudest boast of the ancient world was the boast of democratic citizenship: Civis Romanus sum: ‘I am a Roman citizen.’ The inescapable reality of the present world, for better or worse, is that people everywhere have to say, Civis Americanus sum. That’s strikingly clear here in Europe, in good times and bad. President Obama is a more popular, hope-giving figure than the leaders he recently visited; he’s the counterpoint to Bush and the redeemer of an American image carelessly disfigured during the first decade of the century.

And now the GOP that has moved decidedly to the right of Bush would compound his errors. Congressional Republicans could shatter the restored credibility of the United States by refusing to protect its full faith and credit by raising the national debt ceiling or by holding that essential measure hostage to the repeal of the New Deal – something that never even occurred to Ronald Reagan or either Bush president. In those Oval Offices, they regularly signed debt-ceiling increases.

via The GOP’s dangerous arrogance – Yahoo! News.

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How Fraudulent Is the GOP Budget Plan? It Wouldn’t Even Make a Dent In the Deficit! | | AlterNet

Interesting article from Alternet.

Alternet has so much interesting information, but I just wish it were better, more tightly written.

Maybe it’s my old school journalism background, but while I love the content, the writing style on this site drives me crazy….

Anyway, this is some great information on just how bad the Ryan Republican Budget really is….

The Republican budget plan is the purest expression of the Right’s longstanding desire to dismantle the social safety net. It’s not about the budget deficit—that’s simply a premise — it’s the “Shock Doctrine” in action.

How radical is it? According to an analysis by the non-partisan Center for Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), the plan would slash all public spending other than Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid by almost three-quarters by 2050. And because the “budget does not envision defense cuts in real terms,” what this means is that “most of the rest of the federal government outside of health care, Social Security, and defense would cease to exist.”

It’s the epitome of anti-tax zealot Grover Norquist’s fantasy of shrinking the government down to a point where he could “drown it in a bathtub.”

And it’s not just a matter of bait-and-switch; the entire proposal is a fraud. Just consider this: while selling their plan to the public as a “serious” and “bold” attempt to reduce the federal deficit, Republicans are overstating how much it would cut the budget gap by ten-fold.

via .

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GOP Can’t Handle The Truth: Taxes Are Lower Under Obama Than Reagan

Republicans don’t handle truth or facts well…

One of the things they did learn from Reagan was how to use smoke and mirrors and a little Hollywood magic to conceal the truth…

From ThinkProgress.org:

That House Republicans find this preposterous is symptomatic of the hold Reagan mythology has over them. After all, for seven of Reagan’s eight years in office, the top tax rate was higher than the current 35 percent. In six of those years, it was 50 percent or more. And every year that Regan was in office, the bottom tax bracket was higher than the current ten percent.

For a family of four, the “average income tax rate under Reagan in 1983 was 11.06 percent. Under Clinton in 1992, it was 9.18 percent. And under Obama in 2010, it was 4.68 percent.” During Reagan’s time, income tax revenue ranged from 7.8 to 9.4 percent of GDP. Last year, it was 6.2 percent and is not projected to climb back to 9 percent until 2016. In fact, in 2009, Americans paid their lowest taxes in 60 years.

Republicans are very fond of saying that the U.S. has “a spending problem, not a revenue problem.” But the truth is that revenue has plunged due to the recession and to continued misguided tax cuts, and revenue needs to be raised to eventually bring the budget into balance. And Reagan knew that taxes were an important part of the budget equation. After all, he “raised taxes in seven of his eight years in office,” including four times in just two years.

via GOP Can’t Handle The Truth: Taxes Are Lower Under Obama Than Reagan | ThinkProgress.

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Poll: GOP Medicare-Ending Budget Bigger Political Fumble Than First Thought

Like I’ve said, the Democrats are known for shooting themselves in the foot. But luckily the GOP just shot themselves in the head….

From TalkingPointsMemo.com:

It doesn’t take much political savvy to note that Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) Medicare-destroying budget plan hasn’t panned out all that well for the GOP. But a new poll out from advocates for the Democratic health care law shows that the Ryan budget fail goes even deeper than embarrassed presidential candidates and special election upsets.

Not only does the poll show huge opposition to Ryan’s plan to replace Medicare with a voucher system, the poll shows Democrats winning the credibility war when it comes to Medicare and “protecting the middle class.” And — in a jolt of good news for the White House and Democrats — the numbers show that when voters are given Ryan budget messaging from opponents, support for the Democratic health care law actually goes up slightly in response.

I’ve seen the same types of responses in several other polls today…..

Now, if the Dems just don’t cave in during the negotiations over the debt ceiling, they have a-  probably the- winning issue for the 2012 elections.

And the GOP has got to agree to increase the debt ceiling or Wall Street-who owns most of the government-  will have a nervous breakdown.

They really have no bargaining legs to stand on….

But that’s not stopped the Dems from caving in the past…

via Poll: GOP Medicare-Ending Budget Bigger Political Fumble Than First Thought | TPMDC.

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Against Learned Helplessness – NYTimes.com

More wisdom from Paul Krugman…

He’s right…

As usual…

The voice of common sense in the wilderness.

Bear in mind that the unemployed aren’t jobless because they don’t want to work, or because they lack the necessary skills. There’s nothing wrong with our workers — remember, just four years ago the unemployment rate was below 5 percent.

The core of our economic problem is, instead, the debt — mainly mortgage debt — that households ran up during the bubble years of the last decade. Now that the bubble has burst, that debt is acting as a persistent drag on the economy, preventing any real recovery in employment. And once you realize that the overhang of private debt is the problem, you realize that there are a number of things that could be done about it.

For example, we could have W.P.A.-type programs putting the unemployed to work doing useful things like repairing roads — which would also, by raising incomes, make it easier for households to pay down debt. We could have a serious program of mortgage modification, reducing the debts of troubled homeowners. We could try to get inflation back up to the 4 percent rate that prevailed during Ronald Reagan’s second term, which would help to reduce the real burden of debt.

So there are policies we could be pursuing to bring unemployment down. These policies would be unorthodox — but so are the economic problems we face. And those who warn about the risks of action must explain why these risks should worry us more than the certainty of continued mass suffering if we do nothing.

In pointing out that we could be doing much more about unemployment, I recognize, of course, the political obstacles to actually pursuing any of the policies that might work. In the United States, in particular, any effort to tackle unemployment will run into a stone wall of Republican opposition. Yet that’s not a reason to stop talking about the issue. In fact, looking back at my own writings over the past year or so, it’s clear that I too have sinned: political realism is all very well, but I have said far too little about what we really should be doing to deal with our most important problem.

As I see it, policy makers are sinking into a condition of learned helplessness on the jobs issue: the more they fail to do anything about the problem, the more they convince themselves that there’s nothing they could do. And those of us who know better should be doing all we can to break that vicious circle.

via Against Learned Helplessness – NYTimes.com.

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Why the Democratic Party Has Abandoned the Middle Class in Favor of the Rich | | AlterNet

Great article from Kevin Drum at “Mother Jones” reposted at Alternet.com.

This is really worth reading if you are still tying to figure out why things did not turn out as well as some of us hoped after the 2008 Elections…

In 2008, a liberal Democrat was elected president. Landslide votes gave Democrats huge congressional majorities. Eight years of war and scandal and George W. Bush had stigmatized the Republican Party almost beyond redemption. A global financial crisis had discredited the disciples of free-market fundamentalism, and Americans were ready for serious change.

Or so it seemed. But two years later, Wall Street is back to earning record profits, and conservatives are triumphant. To understand why this happened, it’s not enough to examine polls and tea parties and the makeup of Barack Obama’s economic team. You have to understand how we fell so short, and what we rightfully should have expected from Obama’s election. And you have to understand two crucial things about American politics.

More:  Why the Democratic Party Has Abandoned the Middle Class in Favor of the Rich | | AlterNet.

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“Made in America”: The Comeback – Yahoo! Finance

A little good news….

U.S. exports hit a record $173 billion in March, up 15% from a year-ago and 37% from 2009. The good times for “Made in America” are just getting started, according to a new study from The Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

In fact, BCG predicts 2015 will be a tipping point of sorts, when global manufacturers will view the U.S. as equal to if not better-than China, senior partner Harold Sirkin tells me in the accompanying video.

“We’re not saying the world’s going to suddenly change and U.S. companies are going to manufacture here for shipment to China,” Sirkin says. “But the U.S. will be a very important place if you’re going to sell into the U.S.”

In making this seemingly outrageous forecast, Sirkin cites the following:

Rising wages in China plus the strengthening yuan are eroding China’s cost advantage vs. the U.S.

America’s “very productive, motivated and flexible workforce” is attractive to employers and all aspects of U.S. society — including unions and state governments — are “focused on creating jobs.”

Intangibles such as the length of the supply chain and the challenges of communicating over multiple time zones work to the advantage of the U.S. (The same is true of Mexico, which BCG says is “also poised to benefit as a low-cost alternative” to China.)

For the record, BCG’s forecast is based on the U.S. regulatory and tax environment remaining the same. This is about “pure economics,” Sirkin says. “If you improve tax rates and regulation, it’ll only make the trend happen faster.”

Clearly this forecast runs against conventional wisdom. But conventional wisdom also holds that America “doesn’t make anything anymore,” which isn’t true either. Since 1972, U.S. manufacturing output has risen nearly 2.5 times, according to BCG.

But U.S. manufacturing employment has fallen nearly 25% in the same time period and few consumer goods are made here anymore, which is why it “feels” worse than the reality; if BCG is even half right, that’s going to change for the better soon.

via “Made in America”: The Comeback – Yahoo! Finance.

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An Average American Pays A Higher Income Tax Rate Than ExxonMobil

An interesting fact that I’ve pointed out before…

Bears repeating…

All around the country, Americans are feeling the pinch of high gas prices. Yet one group that is not only not feeling the pain of these prices but is profiting off of them are the big oil companies.

In fact, ExxonMobil, “the largest American oil company,” raked in $30.5 billion in profit in 2010, “making it the most profitable Fortune 500 company for the eighth year in a row.”

The Center for American Progress’s Valeri Vasquez has put out a new report titled “Exxon Mobil Dodges the Tax Man,” which finds that the effective income tax rate for the average American is higher than the effective rate for the oil giant over the past few years. The effective tax rate for the average American in 2007, the last year for which data is available, was 20.4 percent. The annual Exxon federal effective rate between 2008 and 2010, meanwhile, was 17.6 percent:

via ThinkProgress » GRAPH: An Average American Pays A Higher Income Tax Rate Than ExxonMobil.

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The Unwisdom of Elites

Brilliant article from Nobel Prize Winning Economist Paul Krugman in the New York Times….

I put all his credentials out so, hopefully, people will pay attention…

I’m posting as much as I can, here, with a link to the full column…

The past three years have been a disaster for most Western economies. The United States has mass long-term unemployment for the first time since the 1930s. Meanwhile, Europe’s single currency is coming apart at the seams. How did it all go so wrong?

Well, what I’ve been hearing with growing frequency from members of the policy elite — self-appointed wise men, officials, and pundits in good standing — is the claim that it’s mostly the public’s fault. The idea is that we got into this mess because voters wanted something for nothing, and weak-minded politicians catered to the electorate’s foolishness.

So this seems like a good time to point out that this blame-the-public view isn’t just self-serving, it’s dead wrong.

The fact is that what we’re experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. The policies that got us into this mess weren’t responses to public demand. They were, with few exceptions, policies championed by small groups of influential people — in many cases, the same people now lecturing the rest of us on the need to get serious. And by trying to shift the blame to the general populace, elites are ducking some much-needed reflection on their own catastrophic mistakes.

Let me focus mainly on what happened in the United States, then say a few words about Europe.

These days Americans get constant lectures about the need to reduce the budget deficit. That focus in itself represents distorted priorities, since our immediate concern should be job creation. But suppose we restrict ourselves to talking about the deficit, and ask: What happened to the budget surplus the federal government had in 2000?

The answer is, three main things. First, there were the Bush tax cuts, which added roughly $2 trillion to the national debt over the last decade. Second, there were the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which added an additional $1.1 trillion or so. And third was the Great Recession, which led both to a collapse in revenue and to a sharp rise in spending on unemployment insurance and other safety-net programs.

So who was responsible for these budget busters? It wasn’t the man in the street.

President George W. Bush cut taxes in the service of his party’s ideology, not in response to a groundswell of popular demand — and the bulk of the cuts went to a small, affluent minority.

Similarly, Mr. Bush chose to invade Iraq because that was something he and his advisers wanted to do, not because Americans were clamoring for war against a regime that had nothing to do with 9/11. In fact, it took a highly deceptive sales campaign to get Americans to support the invasion, and even so, voters were never as solidly behind the war as America’s political and pundit elite.

Finally, the Great Recession was brought on by a runaway financial sector, empowered by reckless deregulation. And who was responsible for that deregulation? Powerful people in Washington with close ties to the financial industry, that’s who. Let me give a particular shout-out to Alan Greenspan, who played a crucial role both in financial deregulation and in the passage of the Bush tax cuts — and who is now, of course, among those hectoring us about the deficit.

via The Unwisdom of Elites – NYTimes.com.

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