Category Archives: Polls

Gun Issue May Drive Women To 2014 Polls

Off-year elections are always terribly problematic for Democrats.  The Republican base of crazies and old, rich white people always shows up at the polls.  The Democratic constituency doesn’t.

That’s how we got stuck with the Republican House and how the GOP took over so many state legislature and thus gerrymandered the Congressional districts to protect the GOP House.  And how so many crazy Republican Governors got elected in 2010….

The Democrats have to find issues that will drive their voters to the polls in these off-year elections.  Gun control may be one of them.  We just have to break through the DC Bubble about Guns and their fear of the NRA.

All the polls say the public widely supports additional gun controls like background checks, banning assault weapons and high volume magazines.  We just have to get the Dems to believe this and come up with a credible and effective messaging process.

That’s always the biggest challenge:   The Democrats just don’t know how to message and make the most of issues that drive their supporters to the polls.

But they may be starting to learn…

From TalkingPointsMemo.com:

 

Women who don’t usually vote in midterm elections — the same women who generally drive Democratic victories — will turn out in 2014 over the issue of guns, according to a recent poll.

The survey released by Women Donors Network, a self-described progressive “community of women philanthropists,” found that a subset of women voters who usually don’t vote in midterm elections are more likely to vote in 2014 on the issue of gun violence.

That echoes what former Rep. Steve LaTourette (OH), now a militant moderate leader in the Republican Party, said on Tuesday when he cautioned his party against sticking too close to the National Rifle Association in the post-Newtown legislative push to reduce gun violence. If the GOP is seen as being in the pocket of the NRA, he said, it could cost the party big with women in future elections.

The survey, which was conducted by Democratic pollster Diane Feldman and Republican pollster Bob Carpenter using live phone calls to 1,500 women, found that “women who may not ordinarily vote in a non-presidential year are among those most engaged with issues of gun violence.” The group also posted a PDF slide deck presenting the poll’s findings.

Feldman explained in an interview with TPM on Wednesday the results mean guns could be good politics for Democrats.

“As we approach the 2014 congressional elections, the question will be to what degree do single women, lower income women, persons of color participate since that’s the Democratic edge,” she said. “And this is an issue that can encourage them to participate.”

MORE:   Gun Issue May Drive Women To 2014 Polls | TPMDC.

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Reagan Aid: Chunk of GOP Either Stupid, Crazy, Ignorant or Craven Cowards

It’s been a long time since I agreed with a Republican about anything, but this certainly sounds right to me….

From RawStory.com:

Historian Bruce Bartlett, a former domestic policy adviser to President Ronald Reagan, sat down with MSNBC’s Chris Matthews on Wednesday to discuss the national debt.

Bartlett said it was a myth that tax cuts are the key to prosperity, noting that Reagan raised the capital gains rate. He was also skeptical that Congress would be able to solve the current budget crisis.

“I think at this point, there’s nothing that can pass the House of Representatives,” he said.

“I think a good chunk of the Republican caucus is either stupid, crazy, ignorant or craven cowards, who are desperately afraid of the tea party people, and rightly so.”

via Bruce Bartlett: Chunk of GOP either stupid, crazy, ignorant or craven cowards | Raw Replay.

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Half of households pay no income taxes, super rich see taxes fall | The Raw Story

More interesting information for Tax Day:

The Internal Revenue Service and the Tax Policy Center in Washington have some statistics that will likely make last-minute filers extra-irate today: The super-rich are paying less in income tax than they used to, and nearly half of all U.S. households don’t pay any income taxes at all.

The IRS tracks the 400 highest adjusted gross incomes, and how much they pay in income taxes, each year, reports the Associated Press. In 2007, the last available year for IRS data, the average income in that set was around $345 million, and they paid about 17 percent in federal income taxes. In 1992, the average income tax rate for the same set was 26 percent.

Think tank Tax Policy Center also has data that show that about 45 percent of households receive so many tax breaks that they won’t pay federal income tax at all for 2010. The tax code contains $1.1 trillion in credits, deductions and exemptions, around $8,000 per taxpayer.

“It’s the fact that we are using the tax code both to collect revenue, which is its primary purpose, and to deliver these spending benefits that we run into the situation where so many people are paying no taxes,” Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center, told the AP.

via Half of households pay no income taxes, super rich see taxes fall | The Raw Story.

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What Does John Boehner Do for a Living? Less Than Half in Poll Know

This is actually better than I thought it would be…

I’m convinced if Democracy ultimately fails in America, it will be because of ignorance and inattention…

That thought was re-enforced by last year’s election of so many Republicans so soon after they nearly destroyed the world economic system…

From Poll Watch:

Most Americans know that “No Child Left Behind” has something to do with education, that Hillary Clinton is Secretary of State and that Moammar Gadhafy is the leader of Libya, but when it comes to Congress, less than half of the public knows that John Boehner is the Speaker of the House or that the Republicans now have a majority in that chamber, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted March 17-20.

In its regular News IQ quick, Pew found that 80 percent correctly identified “No Child Left Behind,” 73 percent knew what Hillary Clinton did for a living and 71 percent could name the country where Gadhafi has ruled for more than 40 years.

But only 43 percent knew that Boehner was the top House Republican and just 38 percent were aware that the GOP had a majority in the House. Republicans in the survey were predictably the most aware of their good political fortune with 50 percent knowing Boehner was Speaker and 49 percent knowing their party was a majority. Forty-two percent of Democrats knew who Boehner was and 33 percent knew the GOP controlled the House. Forty-one percent of independents correctly identified Boehner’s job and 39 percent knew the Republicans had a House majority.

Nineteen percent thought that Democrat Nancy Pelosi was still the Speaker.

However, Boehner is slowly but surely getting better known. In November, Pew said 38 percent correctly identified Boehner as the speaker-in-waiting. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted in February said 37 percent did not know his name or were not sure of their opinion of him, which was an improvement over the 44 percent in that category last November right after the elections, and 52 percent in October 2010, just before Election Day.

via What Does John Boehner Do for a Living? Less Than Half in Poll Know « Poll Watch Daily.

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Poll: Americans Cooling on Tea Party – POLITICO.com

I knew people would eventually get tire of these lunatics….

Now, if only the press will recognize and accurately report that they are just a fringe group of Republicans…

From Jennifer Epstein at Politico.com

 

The tea party might be running out of steam.

The approval rating for the 2-year-old movement fell to 32 percent in a CNN/Opinion Research corporation poll released Wednesday, the lowest it’s been since CNN first polled on the tea party in January 2010.

Forty-seven percent of Americans, meanwhile, said they have an unfavorable view of the movement, a higher negative percentage than ever. An additional 7 percent said they’d never heard of the movement, and 14 percent said they had no opinion.

In December, 37 percent of the sample surveyed by CNN said they view the tea party favorably, while 43 percent said they view it unfavorably. The group’s favorability rating hovered at36 percent to 38 percent throughout 2010.

The biggest drop in the tea party movement’s favorability came among people who make less than $50,000 a year. In October, 30 percent in that income group said they had unfavorable views of the tea party. Now, 45 percent say the same.

via Poll: Americans cooling on tea party – Jennifer Epstein – POLITICO.com.

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Race and the 2012 election – Ezra Klein – The Washington Post

Glad to see the re-elect numbers so high…

And the race issue with White People doesn’t surprise me.  The whole Tea Party thing is really just a cover for racism.

There are a lot of White People who just can’t deal with the fact that we have a Black/African American President.  And they have a lot of trouble admitting it-even to themselves.

The good news is that we are well on our way to being a multi-racial society and in less than 50 years, White People will be a minority.  Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic group.  That’s something else that scares them…

Demographics and trends continue to support a growing Democratic Party and a dying Republican Party in the long run…

If we can just survive the short run without the GOP destroying everything…

Dave Weigel notes that Barack Obama’s poll numbers are higher than George W. Bush’s or Bill Clinton’s were at this point in the political cycle. You can come up with a lot of reasons for that, but the big one seems to be “ninety-two percent of black voters want to re-elect Obama, as do 66 percent of Hispanics. Only one percent of blacks (!) and 16 percent of Hispanics want to vote against Obama. That’s the source of the positive re-elect number — break it down to white voters, and only 36 percent of them want to re-elect him.”

In “Obama’s Race,” Michael Tesler and David Sears mount a strong case: Far from ushering in a “post-racial period” in American politics, Obama’s election “was more polarized by racial attitudes than any other presidential election on record and, perhaps more significantly, that there were two sides to this racialization: resentful opposition to to and racially liberal support for Obama.”

Another way to say this is that far from marking the end of us-vs.-them elections associated with Richard Nixon’s infamous Southern strategy, the 2008 election was arguably the beginning of its inverse: an electoral campaign where race, because of the skin color of the Democratic nominee, was a central issue, but this time, the “racially progressive” coalition proved larger than the racially conservative coalition. Call it the Northern strategy.

What’s interesting, though, is that the racial polarization has continued into Obama’s presidency.

via Race and the 2012 election – Ezra Klein – The Washington Post.

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Democracy Corps » Congressional Battleground 2012

More and more Buyer’s Remorse as the GOP reminds people how incompetent they are….

These are the guys who caused the economic collapse and were supposedly elected to create jobs…

So far, the Republican Congress has voted to defund NPR and Planned Parenthood, declared war on women’s health in general, had a vote on putting “In God We Trust” on buildings, tried to repeal Health Care reform, and fawned at the feet of the Rich.

No signs of job creation whatsoever….

This poll shows there is hope emerging we can through the rascals out and retake the House in 2012…

A new survey by Democracy Corps in 50 of the most competitive battleground Congressional districts – nearly all of which gave a majority to Obama in the last presidential election – shows the new Republican majority very much in play in 2012. *

The Republican incumbents in these districts, 35 of them freshmen, remain largely unknown and appear very vulnerable in 2012 (depending on redistricting).  In fact, these incumbents are in a weaker position than Democratic incumbents were even in late 2009, or Republican incumbents were in 2007 in comparable surveys conducted by Democracy Corps.

These incumbents, identified by name, have an average approval rating of 35 percent across the 50 districts, with 25 percent disapproving.  Another 38 percent were not able to give the candidates a rating, suggesting lack of visibility.  This is about 10 points lower than the approval rating Democratic incumbents held in July of 2009 (with comparable disapproval rating).

More importantly at this early point, just 40 percent of voters in these districts say that they will vote to reelect their incumbent (asked by name in each district), while 45 percent say that they “can’t vote to reelect” the incumbent.

This leads to a congressional race that is dead-even in the battleground.  After winning these seats by a collective 14 points in 2010, these Republicans now lead generic Democratic challengers by just 2 points, 44 to 46 percent, and stand well below the critical 50 percent mark.  The race is dead even in the top tier of the 25 most competitive seats—46 percent for the Democrats versus 45 percent for the Republicans.  In the next 25 seats, the Republicans have a slight 42 to 47 percent advantage.

For comparison, in July 2009, after the luster of President Obama’s inauguration had already begun to fade, the Democratic incumbents in our battleground of 40 districts had a 6-point advantage over a generic Republican challenger.  36 of these 40 Democrats went on to lose their seats.  And in June of 2007, in the top 35 most competitive Republican-held districts, the incumbents also held a 6-point lead.  19 of those 35 Republicans went on to lose their seats.

And of course, we know that in 2010, two-thirds of Democrats in McCain seats could not hold on.  The Republicans in Obama seats are already at risk.

via Democracy Corps » Congressional Battleground 2012.

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Poll: Public already losing patience with new Congress | McClatchy

That was a short Honeymoon….

I love it about politicians wanting to explain “the deliberate pace of Washington” to their constituents….

Never crosses their mind to change or adapt…

I’m afraid this is just going to get messier with the GOP passing insane bills in the House and the Senate stopping them.  At least as long as the Dems hold the Senate…

It could get really scary after 2012 if the GOP takes the Senate, too….

WASHINGTON — Once again, the public is getting increasingly disgusted with Washington.

It sees a failure to adopt remedies for even the most basic, pressing issues of the day, as Congress struggles to craft a federal budget. And incumbents are getting worried about the political implications.

“It’s hurting some of us,” said Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, who’s up for re-election next year. “They blame everybody.”

A new Pew Research Center poll shows that about half of Americans think the debate over spending and deficits has been “generally rude and disrespectful.”

There’s even bipartisan agreement — 48 percent of Republicans and Democrats have that view, as well as 57 percent of independents. President Barack Obama signed legislation Friday to provide funding to keep the government open until April 8, the sixth such temporary extension in the 6-month-old fiscal year.

Pew surveyed 1,525 adults from March 8-14. The poll’s findings suggest the political losers so far have been Republicans, who rode a wave of voter irritation to win control of the House of Representatives last fall.

After the election, 35 percent said Republicans had a better approach to the deficit, expected to reach a record $1.65 trillion this year. This month, that number has plunged to 21 percent.

People don’t think Obama has better ideas, either — 20 percent found his approach better, down from November’s 24 percent. Total sample margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The most restless constituency has involved supporters of the conservative tea party movement. After the November election, where backers helped elect dozens of congressional Republicans, three of four movement supporters liked GOP budget plans. This month that figure dropped to 52 percent.

“People are growing impatient,” said Carroll Doherty, Pew associate director.

They’ve been impatient for years. In 2006, voters gave Democrats control of both Houses of Congress for the first time in 12 years. Two years later, Obama, a Democrat, reclaimed the White House for his party after eight years of Republican George W. Bush. Last year, Republicans reclaimed control of the House.

“The American public is getting tired of change elections and then not seeing change. There have been three change elections in a row, but people today figure things are still adrift,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducts the McClatchy-Marist poll.

Political veterans are scrambling to educate their constituents about the deliberate pace of Washington.

via Poll: Public already losing patience with new Congress | McClatchy.

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Winning: Independent voters say they’d pick Charlie Sheen over Sarah Palin | The Raw Story

Oh, well….

I guess it really is the beginning of the end for the Devine Sarah…

Charlie Sheen is winning, and he literally didn’t even try.

A recent poll found that the more independent voters would vote for the disgraced actor in a presidential matchup against Fox News employee Sarah Palin.

While two-thirds of those asked in the PPP survey (.pdf) viewed Sheen unfavorably, independents apparently like Palin even less.

Among independent voters, 41 percent would cast their ballot for Sheen. Only 36 percent would select Palin in the hypothetical matchup.

“We’ve found a lot of brutal poll numbers for Sarah Palin so far in 2011: down in South Dakota, down in South Carolina, down in Arizona, only up by 1 point in Texas, only up by 1 point in Nebraska to name a few,” PPP’s Tom Jenson wrote. “But this has to be the worst.”

via Winning: Independent voters say they’d pick Charlie Sheen over Sarah Palin | The Raw Story.

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The Ten Most Miserable States – 24/7 Wall St.

Interesting….

You’ll have to click the link at the bottom to get the actual states….

 

“Well-being” is an inexplicable state of mind. How well people feel is based on their own internal compasses. Researchers have enough trouble defending the methodology used in testing people’s IQs.

The difficulty of measuring happiness has not stopped Gallup from taking polls on the subject. The survey company says that the aspects of well-being are “six subcategories: life evaluation, emotional health, physical health, healthy behavior, work environment, and basic access.” Gallup supposes that people will answer the same questions about subjective measures objectively.

The survey company has taken its data and broken it down by state, metropolitan, and congressional districts.  Members of Congress in unhappy districts may fear for their jobs if they believe that voters chose their elected officials based on how they feel about themselves.

24/7 Wall St. took the Gallup information and added additional data that shows the emotional state of the states’ residents. Our analysis includes median income. West Virginia is at the bottom of the rankings. It has the second lowest median income among all 50 states.  24/7 Wall St. also added unemployment statistics to its analysis. There is a close correlation between joblessness and well-being. 24/7 used data regarding the percentage of adults who are obese, however these numbers came from Gallup. West Virginia has the highest obesity rate of any state–33.5%.

This is the 24/7 Wall St. list of The Ten Most Miserable States. Data used includes figures from Gallup, the Census Bureau, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Gallup’s description of its study: “The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index is the first-ever daily assessment of U.S. residents’ health and well-being.” The organizations interview at least 1,000 U.S. adults every day.  The data used in this analysis comes from Gallup’s in-depth 2010 report on the states.

More:   The Ten Most Miserable States – 24/7 Wall St..

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